with the leading candidate hovering right at the 50 percent mark needed to avoid a run-off with his top challenger.
As the last third of votes came in, the percentage held by Deputy
Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta flipped and flopped over the 50 percent
mark. His opponent, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, needed a strong
performance in the remaining ballots to force a second round run-off.
Eight candidates ran for presidents, so if any of the bottom six
candidates captures a significant portion of the outstanding ballots,
that could also push Kenyatta below 50 percent.
A Kenyatta win could have far-reaching consequences with Western
relations. The son of Kenya's founding father, Kenyatta faces charges at
the International Criminal Court for his role in directing some of the
vicious postelection violence that followed Kenya's 2007 presidential
vote, when tribe-on-tribe attacks killed more than 1,000 people.
The U.S. has warned of "consequences" if Kenyatta is to win, as have
several European countries. Britain, which ruled Kenya up until the
early 1960s, has said they would only have essential contact with a
President Kenyatta.
The U.S. Embassy in Kenya is larger than any American mission in
Africa, underscoring Kenya's strong role in U.S. foreign policy. The
U.S. also has military forces stationed here near the border with
Somalia. Kenya, the lynchpin of East Africa's economy, plays a vital
security role in the fight against Somali militants.
Kenyatta's ICC trial is set to begin in July and could take years,
meaning that if he wins he may have to rule Kenya from The Hague for the
first half of his presidency. Another option is, as president, to
decide not to go. But that decision would have even more damaging
effects for Kenya's standing with the West, and Kenyatta has promised he
will go even if he wins.
Whether or not Kenyatta finishes with over half of the votes, most
observers expected legal challenges to be launched after a myriad of
failures in the systems Kenya's electoral commission set up.
The first problems were evident right as the voting began early
Monday. An electronic voter ID system intended to prevent fraud failed
across the country for lack of electricity in some cases and overheating
computers in others. Vote officials instead used manual voter rolls.
After the polls closed, results were to be sent electronically to
Nairobi, where officials would quickly tabulate a preliminary vote count
in order to maximize transparency after rigging accusations following
the 2007 vote. But that system failed too. Election officials have
indicated that computer servers overloaded but have yet to fully explain
the problem.
On Tuesday, as the early count system was still being used, election
results showed more than 330,000 rejected ballots, an unusually high
number. But after the count resumed with the arrival in Nairobi of
manual tallies, the number of rejected ballots had dropped to almost
nothing, and the election commission on Thursday gave the
head-scratching explanation that the computer was mistakenly multiplying
the number of rejected ballots by a factor of eight.
Odinga's camp on Thursday said some votes had been doctored and
called for a halt to the tallying process. It said the tallying process
"lacked integrity." A day earlier, Kenyatta's camp accused the British
high commissioner of meddling in the election and asked aloud why there
were an unusually high number of British troops in the country.
The election commission said it expected to have final results by the
end of Friday, though observers said it was still possible the count
would go into the weekend.
There were fears going into the election that the violence that
rocked Kenya five years ago would return. A separatist group on the
coast launched attacks on Monday that ended in the deaths of 19 people,
but the vote and its aftermath has otherwise been largely peaceful.
However, it's the announcement of results that could stir protests,
especially if the supporters of either Odinga or Kenyatta feel robbed.
Diplomats say that the public reaction to an election loss by the losing
candidate will set the tone for whether violence breaks out.
The political battle between the families of Kenyatta and Odinga goes
back to the 1960s and to the two candidates' fathers. Jomo Kenyatta was
Kenya's first president after the end of British colonial rule.
Jaramogi Oginga Odinga served as the country's first vice president
then. The two later had a falling out.
If a runoff is declared, it would be most likely held in late April, depending on how long legal challeng
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