A man adjusts a banner before the
start of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's funeral outside the Military
Academy on Friday, March 8, in Caracas. Uncertainty swirled around what
happens next in Venezuela as the deeply divided South American country
mourned its late leader. Chavez, 58, died Tuesday, March 5, after a
battle with cancer.
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After Chavez: Venezuela in transition
Hugo Chavez's 14 years as president of Venezuela were so personality-driven that the movement behind him became known as "Chavismo."
Chavismo encompasses not
just the political machine that saw Chavez re-elected four times, but a
leftist ideology that prioritized the redistribution of oil wealth to
the marginalized and valued sovereignty as something to be protected
from "imperialist" powers.
Now, with its leader
gone, the future of Chavismo could take many paths, experts say. Other
powerful leaders in history who left a similar hole have seen their
ideologies live on, though not without change.
There is a trade-off
between the degree to which a government centers on one person and the
strength of that country's institutions, said Javier Corrales, a
professor of political science at Amherst College who studies Venezuela.
In general, the stronger the central figure, the weaker the
institutions.
"In authoritarian regimes, you always have a crisis moment when you see a change in leadership," Corrales said.
Chavez was democratically
elected, but his efforts to consolidate power in the presidency led to
accusations of authoritarianism.
Change is inevitable after the loss of a revered leader, but the degree of transformation varies.
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In Yugoslavia in the
period after World War II until 1980, Josip Broz Tito succeeded in
keeping the various ethnic groups in his country united. Despite being
considered an authoritarian, he remained popular because of the unity
and economic success. Upon his death, however, the country unraveled and
fell into civil war, and Yugoslavia crumbled, eventually splitting into
separate nations.
After Joseph Stalin died
in the Soviet Union, there was a complete break with his regime under
the new leader, Nikita Khrushchev. Khrushchev rejected Stalin's terror
tactics.
Change in Cuba was more
subtle after the passing of the torch from Fidel Castro to his brother
Raul Castro, Corrales said. The Castros share their communist views, but
after the younger Castro took office, he purged some men and has since
pursued policies to somewhat open up Cuba.
Venezuelan interim
President Nicolas Maduro is expected to vie for the full-time job, and
analysts predict he has the best shot at getting elected.
If elected, Maduro
eventually will have to purge some of the Chavez loyalists and shake up
the Cabinet to consolidate his own power, Corrales said.
Hugo Chavez's legacy
iReporters remember Hugo Chavez
"Whoever comes next is going to have to assert himself in a pretty domineering way," he said.
The lasting power of Chavez's image
Chavez's dedication to
putting the nation's poor at the forefront of his policies made him a
hero among a large sector of the population. His freewheeling spending
of his nation's oil wealth was criticized by some economists as
unsustainable, but Venezuela's poor saw results and elevated Chavez to
hero status.
In Latin America, such status carries a lot of weight.
Consider a movement in
Nicaragua that has survived over the years: Sandinismo. Augusto Sandino
was the leader of a rebellion in the late 1920s and early 1930s against
an American occupation. The Sandinistas are in power today in Nicaragua,
under President Daniel Ortega, though the movement has little to do
with its origins, said Andres Perez, a professor of political science at
the University of Western Ontario.
Sandino's memory has been manipulated for political purposes over time, just like Chavez's might.
Years after Sandino was
killed, Nicaraguans used his image as a symbol in their own rebellion to
overthrow a dictatorship. A movement, the Sandinista National
Liberation Front, was born. The current Sandinista president uses the
same symbol and movement, though it has been manipulated from earlier
Sandinismo, Perez said.
Photos: Hugo Chavez's funeral
Photos: Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's vocal leader
"When people find a symbol or answer to their aspirations, they tend to perpetuate it," Perez said.
In the case of Chavismo, it is difficult to predict what will happen the movement as a political movement, Perez said.
"But what I can say is
that the memory of Chavez will last. It will be very difficult to erase
it from the poor sector of Venezuela who found answers in the image and
words of Chavez," he said.
Millions of Venezuelans
found hope in Chavez, and now the question is who will appropriate his
image and how will they use it, Perez said. Conceivably, even the
opposition could take aspects of Chavez's legacy and make it their own,
he said.
Already during last
year's electoral campaign, the opposition vowed not to undo the social
missions that Chavez initiated, but only to modify them.
The director of the
polling firm Datanalisis, Luis Vicente Leon, predicted something similar
in a series of Twitter posts before Chavez died.
"To count out Chavismo
without Chavez is to ignore that there is Peronism without Peron and
Sandinismo without Sandino," he tweeted. "It will suffer a great loss
without Chavez, but it has a legacy of power and symbolism that it can
exploit."
Peronism is a movement
named after former Argentine President Juan Peron, a legacy that has
been claimed over the years by parties both on the political right and
left.
Outlook good for Chavismo in short term
Despite suffering from
cancer, Chavez resoundingly won re-election in October. His popularity,
combined with the outpouring of tributes in the wake of his death, make a
Chavista victory likely in the new elections that must be called.
Maduro was named by
Chavez as his preferred successor and could easily win the election, but
he will have to put the movement's unity as his priority, said Steve
Ellner, a professor at Venezuela's Universidad de Oriente who has
written several books about Chavez's Venezuela.
There are divisions
within Chavismo that have come to light as Chavez's health faded. Some
stand behind Maduro, who is close with the Cuban regime, while others
side with Diosdado Cabello, the National Assembly president who is more
of a nationalist. Because Chavez was never sworn in for his latest
terms, there is even a debate over which of the two, constitutionally,
should be the interim president.
In the short term,
Maduro will have to avoid internal dissent that threatens the movement,
Ellner said. That may mean adopting populist positions that the
nationalists like.
"I don't see a turn to the moderate policies that some favor," Ellner said.
One of the
characteristics of Chavismo is the fervor of its adherents. Chavez was a
master of cultivating that fervor, and the next Chavista leader will
have to do the same, Ellner said.
"In any process of far-reaching changing, it is essential," he said.
Maintaining that level
of fervor keeps followers from becoming disillusioned, he said. One of
Chavez's strategies was to surprise Venezuelans with new policies that
invigorated the rank-and-file, a formula that future leaders may have to
follow, he said.
In a speech at his swearing in as interim leader, Maduro promised to follow Chavez's path.
"We still have him in our hearts," he said. "I have him here, here, as if he was the name in my soul, because I am his son."
The future of Chavismo
Chavez supporter reflects on Chavismo
The grip of Chavismo on Venezuela is not guaranteed.
"I have my doubts about
the existence of Chavismo without Chavez," leading opposition figure
Henrique Capriles told a Spanish newspaper in January. "To me, any
movement without its leading figure is deeply vulnerable."
Capriles is expected to be the opposition candidate to challenge Maduro for the presidency.
"It will depend on
opposition voters understanding that Chavismo without Chavez is beatable
and deeply vulnerable if they mobilize," he said.
If Chavismo is
victorious in its first election without Chavez, the new leader will
have to face decisions that may cause dissatisfaction among the
movement, said Corrales, the Amherst professor.
If Maduro wins, he will
have to deal with a tough economic crisis and will be forced to consider
future devaluations and spending cuts, topics which have provoked
tensions within Chavismo in the past.
The next president also
will have to rethink the way that the country's oil wealth is spent and
the subsidies it provides, both foundations of Chavismo.
Supporters of Chavez are more optimistic about the lasting legacy of Chavez.
"Chavismo, at one point,
was focused on the figure of Chavez as the all-emcompassing one, but it
grew and expanded to become this mass movement that has crossed the
borders out of Venezuela into the world beyond and has affected
countries around the world," Eva Golinger, a Venezuelan-American
attorney, author and adviser to Chavez.
Chavismo and the social revolution that Chavez began will continue, she predicted.
"Chavez (was) a very
powerful personality, very charismatic person, larger than life, and
most media attention went to him," Golinger said. "But in the end, what
really has been going on in Venezuela is a whole transformation of the
country, that's why it's called a revolution, changing every sector of
society."
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