Nigeria Always Flirts with Anarchy, Says Osuntokun

Chief Akin Osuntokun

Former political adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo and one-time Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Chief Akin Osuntokun, in this interview with Tokunbo Adedoja, speaks on the recent controversial pardon granted to some former government officials, the build-up to the 2015 elections, reported cracks in the PDP and the security situation in the country. Excerpts:

Though 2015 is about two years away, the political realignments are already taking place, particularly with the formation of the All Progressive Congress. Do you foresee a formidable opposition party and the possibility of a change in leadership?

The two-party system is self-prescriptive for Nigeria. In recognition of Nigeria’s potentially destabilising multiple cleavages of ethnicity, regionalism and religion, it can serve the utility of bridging these cleavages and foster national cohesion and integration. It compels the broadening of political party formation across religious, regional and ethnic divisions and thereby serves as a pressure point for political stability. What we are seeing with respect to the formation of the APC is actually a historical replication of the self-corrective tendency of Nigeria’s political system.

In the First Republic, it was enacted in the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA), and repeated in the still-born Progressive Parties Alliance (PPA), of the Second Republic. The Third Republic was unique to the extent that it went on to legislate the two-party system that was given concrete manifestation in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republic Convention (NRC).

This tendency is also compelled by the realisation that parties solely rooted on any of this division stand no chance of winning countrywide elections. The reality of this characteristic of our politics is the motive force behind the formation of the APC. This has to happen for the opposition parties to have a fighting chance of winning the election. I will still stake my bet on a PDP victory but let’s wait and see.

Looking at the growing insecurity, are you worried that the country is sliding into anarchy?
Of course, I am worried! Who wouldn’t? The tragedy of Nigeria is that we are always flirting with anarchy. I think there is a direct correlation between large scale poverty and most of the problems we face. To this extent, with the identification of this causal relationship, the problem is half solved. The one that worries me the most is the unprecedented upsurge in terrorism.

It worries me precisely because I am unable to attribute it to any cause that is within our provenance to solve. So far, as I know and with specific reference to the Boko Haram terror regime, the main argument put forward by this group is the aspiration to islamise the North in particular and Nigeria in general. The problem here is that I don’t see how this manifesto can be rationally engaged because it defies the logic of the Nigerian constitution and the corporate existence of Nigeria.

Do you agree with position that government’s approach to the issue is wrong?
I think it was Aristotle who said let fools contend, whatever is best administered is best. Look, there is no standard template for responding to terrorism, solutions tend to be situation specific. I don’t know whether the strategy the government has adopted is right or wrong precisely because I am humble enough to assume that government is doing more than just the mere exhibition of superior violence that is known and visible to all. You know the average Nigerian pundit tends to believe he has the solution to all problems.

I have heard people say government should lay emphasis on the gathering of intelligence, do this, don’t do that. How people bring themselves to believe that somehow the government does not predicate its actions on intelligence gathering beats my imagination. There is the new mantra that government should declare amnesty for the Boko Haram warriors but then it takes two to tango.

Amnesty cannot be declared in a vacuum. You have got to have some kind of mediation and I recall that previous attempts at mediation have always been disowned and threatened by Boko Haram itself. The Sheik Dahiru Bauchi and Dr. Datti Ahmed emissary faltered and sputtered to a halt at the road block erected by those they purportedly represent.

You will also recall that General Mohammadu Buhari categorically rejected any attempt to enlist him in a similar capacity. Before all these, President Obasanjo went to Maiduguri on a peace mission and his host was assassinated the following day. Despite all these, I still believe that the government has at no time abandoned efforts at the carrot and stick approach. And I think it is counter-productive to publicise all the government is doing in this regard. Amnesty also presupposes that it is within capacity of Nigeria to accept and accommodate the grievances that resulted in the crime committed.

Now, how do you accept and seek a middle course with the objective that Nigeria should become a theocracy? That Jonathan should convert to Islam.

The recent pardon granted to some former government officials has continued to generate criticism, especially the inclusion of former Bayelsa State governor, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. Do you think the president judiciously and appropriately exercised his power?

That was an error and a public relations disaster. But the more important question is whether the error was committed in good faith. In other words, was the government truly acting on the basis of the rationale that the beneficiary was strategically instrumental to the pacification of the Niger Delta militancy? I think the overwhelmingly negative reaction of the public is attributable to the belief that the rationale that the government tendered was ostensible. That there was an ulterior motive that has got nothing to do with nobility.

When you look at the category of those granted pardon, in what ways has that enhance the fight against graft?
If there is an unprecedented level of corruption and moral decadence, efforts at addressing these weighty debilities should rightly take precedence over getting embroiled in controversy over actions the government is finding difficult to justify.

You worked closely with former President Obasanjo, so, how would you describe his leadership style and place in history?
Sitting in judgment over a complex over-achiever and a father figure is always a tricky proposition. First you have to realise that I, understandably, have a more charitable and positive opinion of him than most of our country men and women. Obasanjo has a huge deficiency gap in public relations and propaganda. This renders him prone to demonisation by very many people, who, rightly or wrongly, take offence at him.

He is quarrelsome and opens himself to dissipation and distraction by the-winner-takes-all supremacist power struggle against many important players including, especially, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. But you know- the truth is that in terms of public service record, you can only compare Obasanjo to himself. I think he towers above his peers in this regard. There can be no contention that he remains the most successful occupant of the highest office in the land.

Do you share the opinion that there are conscious attempts by the Jonathan administration to sideline Obasanjo and what implication has this for PDP in South-west?
Well you know that in politics, perception can be more important than reality and the fact that you are suggesting this means that this line of thought is gaining ground. Personally, I find it difficult to believe.

What is happening in the PDP generally, not only in the South-west has all the trappings of power play but I cannot foretell the direction and dimension it will take. Certainly, it bodes ill for the PDP if the present momentum continues unchecked. There is the admonition that a house divided against itself cannot stand.